New map shows how badly areas in England could be hit by second Covid-19 wave

A new mapping tool developed by Oxford University highlights the level of risk of a second wave of coronvirus across the whole of England.

By Lloyd Bent
Tuesday, 7th July 2020, 11:50 am
Updated Tuesday, 7th July 2020, 11:50 am

The map is designed to supplement test and trace technology in highlighting areas where there is potential for the infection rate to spike.

It does this by combining key data of known COVID-19 vulnerabilities such as age, social deprivation, population density, ethnicity and hospital resources in any given area.

Scientists from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at Oxford University have used this data to determine the expected number of people out of every 1,000 in an area that are at risk of hospitalisation.

How Sheffield would cope with second wave

Measurements are given for both whole counties and also for more localised areas determined by Clinical Commissioning Groups.

In Sheffield the risk is listed as average, with 7 people out of every 1,000 expected to be hospitalised with coronavirus.

A rating of 10 per 1,000 is considered ‘high’, while 5 per 1,000 is considered ‘lower’ risk.

Elsewhere in South Yorkshire, the map says that 8 people per 1,000 in Doncaster are expected to be hospitalised with COVID-19, while in Barnsley it is slightly higher at 8.1.

The Royal Hallamshire Hospital in Sheffield.

In Rotherham the number given is also 8.1 per 1,000.

In Derbyshire, 8.4 people out f every 1,000 are expected to be hospitalised. In Bassetlaw the expected number is 8.8 per 1,000.

And in the area covered by the Mansfield and Ashfield CCG the number given by researchers is 8.1 per 1,000. In the Newark and Sherwood CCG area the number is 8.8 per 1,000.

Professor Melinda Mills, author and Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science said: “With additional outbreaks and second waves, thinking not only regionally, but at much smaller scale at the neighbourhood level will be the most effective approach to stifle and contain outbreaks, particularly when a lack of track and trace is in place.”

Research has shown areas such as the Isle of Wight and Lincolnshire to have some of the highest risk factors. These areas not only have older populations, but also higher levels of social deprivation.